2026 multifamily outlook: Economic and operational predictions

Hey there,

I hope you had a great weekend!

Every other Monday, I send out a roundup of the most relevant multifamily news and insights, curated from the perspective of both an operator and a passive investor.

Here's what stood out to me this week

The multifamily market in 2026 is shaping up to be a tale of two possibilities, with supply trends offering clear relief but demand remaining uncertain. The good news? Completions are expected to drop to around 300,000 units—roughly half of 2024's peak—which should ease the brutal supply pressure operators have faced in recent years. However, rent growth and occupancy recovery will largely depend on whether consumer confidence rebounds or continues to languish, making this a "wait and see" year for pricing power.

On the operational side, the industry buzz around AI and resident-first tech needs to actually deliver results in 2026, with successful operators being those who streamline workflows, embrace pet-friendly policies as a competitive advantage, and centralize their technology to create seamless experiences that residents now expect from every aspect of their lives.

A temporary deviation from multifamily-specific content, but felt compared to share, as it's a great reminder for ambitious people who can lose sight of the big picture (which describes many of the folks who subscribe to this newsletter)!

In this episode, I sit down with Igor Shaltanov to unpack his journey from professional water polo in Russia to raising capital for more than 20 multifamily deals in the U.S. We talk through how he got started by renting out his mom’s spare apartment in Moscow, transitioned into single-family investing after moving to the States, and eventually scaled into multifamily. Igor shares why he intentionally became a passive investor in 10 deals before ever going active, and how that experience shaped the way he evaluates opportunities today.

We also go deep on what Igor has learned from both successful and failed partnerships, including how COVID highlighted the importance of landlord-friendly states and strong sponsorship teams. He explains how he vets sponsors, what he looks for in the capital stack, and why newer-vintage multifamily properties with assumable loans are especially compelling in today’s environment. This conversation is a great listen for anyone thinking about transitioning from single-family to multifamily, raising capital, or partnering with sponsors the right way in a challenging market.

You can also listen to this episode on Spotify.

We have officially reached the 1-year anniversary of closing on our 72-unit building in Barrington, NH (formerly Sterling Realty Apartments, now Meadowbrook Manor).

At closing, the average rent was $1,541/mo (we inherited ~13% vacancy). Today, average rents are $1,981/mo, and we’re operating with a normalized vacancy of 4-5%.

Some other wins -

• Many of the legacy tenants on M2M leases were paying close to market rent. We signed longer-term leases (18+ months) with these tenants to reduce vacancy while the market slowed down over the last 12 months.

• We're spending far less than our original per/unit CapEx budget when renovating units (more units are in better condition than initially anticipated).

• Our operating expenses are 15%+ less than what we underwrote. This is primarily due to insurance coming in under budget and moving from a full-time on-site manager (unnecessary for a property of this size) to a part-time on-site manager with rotating assistance from our PM team.

This resulted in the total rent roll growing from $110,952/mo at closing → $142,632/mo today - great progress!

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