Hi {{first_name | there}},
If you’ve invested in real estate before (or even just followed the space), you’ve probably noticed that a lot of firms talk about “discipline” and “selectivity.” That said, it’s hard to define what this actually looks like, in practice.
We recently did a retrospective analysis on all the deals we’ve pursued over the last 3 years within our business to develop a sense of how our pipeline has grown… and thought our network would find the results insightful.
Here’s our deal activity across 2023–2025:
Over the last three years, we underwrote 578 properties totaling 5,564 units. Because we focus on smaller multifamily, our average deal size is smaller than firms exclusively pursuing larger assets - about 9-11 units per deal depending on the year (2023 averaged ~10.7 units per deal; 2024 averaged ~8.4; 2025 averaged ~9.7).
As many of you know, this is intentional… we purposefully pursue smaller deals given there is less sophisticated competition, and it’s easier to buy directly from owners (better deals)!
To clarify, when we say “offer made”, we mean we drafted and sent a Purchase and Sale Agreement (PSA). We do this on purpose – even when we suspect we may not be close to a seller’s expectations, we still put our best foot forward and document our offer in a “real” contract. Why? Because it signals seriousness. It makes follow-ups easier. And if the seller’s expectations change later (their timeline changes, motivation increases, etc), we’re already positioned as the buyer who did the work.
With that definition in mind, here’s the breakdown:
2023: 173 deals underwritten (1,858 units) - 107 PSAs sent (about 9 per month) - 10 offers accepted (roughly a 9% acceptance rate).
2024: 173 deals (coincidentally the same as 2023) underwritten (1,457 units) - 121 PSAs sent (about 10 per month) - 14 offers accepted (about a 12% acceptance rate).
2025: 232 deals underwritten (2,249 units) - 192 PSAs sent (16 per month) - 13 offers accepted (about a 7% acceptance rate).
Across all three years, that’s 420 PSAs sent and 37 accepted offers (roughly 8.8%).
Some conclusions we’ve drawn from this data (and some caveats):
We primarily pursue direct-to-seller deals through channels like direct mail, cold calling, and email marketing. As a result, we’re able to close a higher % of the deals we offer, given that we’re not competing with the same number of buyers as fully marketed deals.
We obviously underwrote far more deals in 2025, which was due to increasing our direct mail marketing spend + our list size (slightly wider radius). That said, we didn’t significantly change our spend from 2024 to 2025 (only increased by 15%), so we think this is more representative of more sellers exploring the idea of selling, with many still holding firm on legacy pricing.
Our focus has continued to be on increasing the offers we make per month (our main KPI). While our acceptance rate fell in 2025, more offers were made, which means more opportunities for effective follow-up as sellers work further down the pipeline.
Many of you may see investors talking about “diligent underwriting” on LinkedIn, boasting how they only buy 1% of the deals their sent. While this data can be valuable, it doesn’t really mean much. If we tracked the % of deals we buy that brokers sent us, it would be under 1%, as they wouldn’t even be included in the above accounting. The vast majority of the deals we underwrite are direct-to-seller, which are fundamentally more compelling opportunities than brokered deals at market pricing.
We’re in the process of raising capital for the third (and final) tranche of our fund, the NH Multifamily Fund III. If you’d like a deeper look at our underwriting approach and the types of opportunities we’re pursuing (and have already bought) within the field, you can access our deal room below:
If you’d like to schedule a call with me, you can do so with this link.
Talk soon,
Axel
P.S. Most firms won't share their actual deal numbers publicly. We think transparency matters. If you know another investor tired of the LinkedIn hype and interested in real data, forward this email to them.
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