Apartment demand fell notably behind supply in the third quarter of 2025.

Hey there,

I hope you had a great weekend!

Every other Monday, I send out a roundup of the most relevant multifamily news and insights, curated from the perspective of both an operator and a passive investor.

Here's what stood out to me this week

The gap between apartment supply and demand widened dramatically in the third quarter, with only about 42,000 units absorbed compared to over 105,000 units delivered—one of the worst mismatches in three decades. Demand came in at roughly half the typical rate for this time of year, driven by weak employment, pessimistic consumer sentiment, and broader economic uncertainty.

While annual absorption numbers still look decent thanks to stronger performance earlier in the year, the quarter-over-quarter slowdown is stark. The silver lining is that new construction is finally tapering off after last year's record-breaking delivery peak, which could help the market rebalance sooner rather than later.

Obviously, there is far more diligence required to arrive at the accurate cap rate for deals trading in your market. Still, I thought this was a compelling way to think about the fundamentals of where deals should trade from a cap rate standpoint (multifamily or otherwise).

In this episode, I break down the five attributes that make a multifamily deal truly irresistible. The ones that, when we see them, we aggressively pursue. Over the years, we’ve noticed that our best-performing deals share the same core characteristics, and understanding these traits has completely reshaped how we evaluate new opportunities. If you’re a value-add investor, you’re probably chasing these same features—whether you’ve defined them yet or not.

I dive into why minimal systems CapEx combined with meaningful, value-add renovation upside is the ideal setup, the management inefficiencies that create easy wins for seasoned operators, and how low rents paired with the right resident base can set the foundation for long-term success. I also get into why unit mix matters more than most investors think, and the often-overlooked advantage of working with a collaborative seller, especially when it comes to financing and structuring a deal.

You can also listen to this episode on Spotify:

One of the biggest challenges when raising capital for a fund versus raising on a deal-by-deal basis is the timing dilemma. You're asking investors to commit before a specific deal is defined, which means the capital can begin accruing preferred return even before it's deployed (if this is how the funds docs are drawn up). In a fund structure like how we structured the NH Multifamily Fund III, if we (the sponsor) don’t have a consistent, reliable pipeline of small multifamily deals, that lag can create drag on performance.

That’s exactly why I’m proud of what our team just accomplished. Following the close of our most recent tranche of capital (on 10/1), we fully deployed 100% of invested funds within 23 days. That level of speed is possible because of our consistent ability to source discounted, direct-to-seller, off-market opportunities across New Hampshire. For a fund built around small, scattered-site value-add deals, fast deployment is one of the clearest indicators that the model is working as intended.

As we gear up for our next close in early January, we already have several properties identified and are actively working to put multiple deals under contract. Based on the current pipeline, we expect to fully deploy this capital in a similar timeline, post-closing of the round.

More to come as we continue building momentum into the new year - if you’d like to chat about the fund or our investing approach, feel free to schedule a call using this link.

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